Transportation & Logistics M&A Pulse – Q4 2025

Q4 2025 – Quarterly Market Recap

• U.S. M&A activity in the Transportation and Logistics (“T&L”) sector declined sharply in 2025, totaling 121 transactions, down 28% from 168 transactions in 2024. Strategic buyers largely paused acquisition activity amid an exceptionally fluid policy environment, including heightened trade uncertainty. This uncertainty prompted shippers such as Knight‑Swift to shift from moving new imports to shipping existing inventory, contributing to an industry‑wide “import cliff” and significant freight flow volatility. As a result, 2025 became a year of strategic reset, with express carriers such as FedEx and UPS prioritizing internal alignment, organic growth initiatives, and major divestitures, most notably FedEx Freight. Activity began to rebound late in the year, as evidenced by U.S. financial buyer deal volume doubling in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Looking ahead to 2026, two factors position the T&L sector for a meaningful rebound in M&A activity. First, economists broadly expect the Federal Reserve to implement two to three interest rate cuts, which should lower financing costs and support a recovery in manufacturing activity. Second, the internal restructuring efforts undertaken by large T&L strategics in 2025, such as UPS’s closure of ~100 facilities to optimize its network, have freed up capital and sharpened strategic focus, enabling these players to reengage in inorganic growth opportunities.

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